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2007 Farm Bill delayed, but for how long? Despite earnest attempts, lawmakers involved in the protracted farm bill debate never managed to execute a winning Hail Mary pass before the clock ran out in overtime. The 2002 Farm Bill technically expired Sept. 30, though Congress still has not managed to pass a replacement. That's not to say they aren't trying. The House has passed a version of the farm bill, while the Senate has not. "To get a final bill, Congress will have to reconcile all the various options," says Dr. James Novak, an Alabama Cooperative Extension System economist and Auburn University professor of agricultural economics. "In the view of many lawmakers, there's a long way to go to get this done." Cause for panic? Not yet, according to Novak and two other farm policy experts. As they stress, Congress has missed Hail Mary passes in the past, but has still managed to make up for it in rematches. Writing in a timely information bulletin published earlier this week, Novak along with fellow agricultural economists Larry Sanders of says Congress now has three options. It could draft a new bill, extend the current 2002 farm bill or revert to the permanent 1949 legislation. The last option is unappealing for several reasons, largely because it's outmoded and too costly. Here's why: Permanent legislation includes acreage allotments, marketing quotas, parity price support programs and loan program provisions. And even though the U.S. Department of Agriculture already has announced that there would be no quota and allotments for the 2008 commodity programs under permanent legislation, the remaining provisions still would be too costly in an era when Congress is especially preoccupied with cost-savings. Then again, cost concerns always have been one of the main bones of contention in this farm bill haggling, especially those associated with future commodity program payments. Budget worries, the three economists believe, will likely have an influence on how future commodity payments are shaped. On a more immediate basis, uncertainty over the fate of a new farm bill could possibly affect the ability of growers to secure loans, though they stress that commodity payments for the 2007 crop year would be unaffected. So where does all of this leave us? For the immediate future, with something that closely resembles what we already have, say the experts. Many of farm programs that would have expired Sept. 30 along with the farm bill will be extended to Nov. 16 under a continuing resolution passed by Congress and signed by President Bush. Congress also could opt to extend appropriations for this discretionary spending beyond current expiration dates. That has been the case in recent farm bill cycles - 1985, 1990 and 1995 - when Congress missed previous deadlines. But that begs the larger question: What will Congress ultimately decide to do about permanent farm legislation? The experts speculate that Congress could stick with the status quo, either extending the 2002 farm bill indefinitely or drafting one that closely resembles it. "The advantage is that it's a known quality," the three economists write. In fact, sticking with some form of the current bill would not surprise them, largely because those who would benefit the most from preserving the status quo are well-positioned politically both with Congress and the White House.
Even so, wild cards, including the ongoing World Trade Organization negotiations, still could come into play. But the three experts consider it unlikely that a delayed farm bill would follow the conclusion of these negotiations. As evidence, they point to this past summer's expiration of Presidential Trade Authority, which could reflect a reluctance in Congress to impose any WTO restrictions on a new farm bill.
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