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Cast a meaningful vote on Feb. 5 A suggestion for Alabama voters in the upcoming presidential preference primaries: Don't be too casual in how you cast your ballot. This year, your vote might actually mean something. In the past, Alabamians could be excused for not taking presidential primaries too seriously. After all, by the time Alabamians cast primary votes in most past presidential election years, earlier caucuses and primaries for both political parties already had essentially decided the nominees. But it's going to be different this year. Not only have the political parties in Alabama moved their presidential primaries up from June to Feb. 5, but early caucuses in Iowa and the primary in New Hamp-shire have not established clear front-runners in either party. The Republican primary in Michigan today w o n ' t make anything final, either. The Demo- cratic primary in Michigan d o e s n' t mean much, because the national Democratic Party penalized Michigan and Florida delegates for violating party rules by moving their primaries so early without party permission. So no Democratic delegates will be assigned based on the primary results. And while some candidates could start dropping out soon, the race in both political parties still should be wide open when Alabamians and voters in 21 other states either go to the polls or to caucus meetings three weeks from today. So what does the political landscape look like in Alabama? Based on a recent poll by Gerald Johnson at the Capital Survey Research Center, a polling organization associated with the Alabama Education Association, there is no clear frontrunner in either political party. On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. John McCain has 25 percent support among those Alabamians polled who said they would likely vote in the GOP primary on Feb. 5, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has 32 percent. But since the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for each candidate, no clear victor can be predicted from those results. But it does appear to be a twoperson race, with no other GOP candidate even close and 19 percent of those polled still undecided. It's even closer among the leaders in the Democratic primary in Alabama, with U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a statistical dead heat. Clinton had 34 percent support among likely Democratic voters, and Obama 36 percent, with a 6 percentage point margin of error. No other Democratic candidate had double-digit support, and 21 percent of likely Democratic voters were undecided. John-son, who has an outstanding record with political polls, shows some interesting tracking numbers over the past few months. For instance, Obama took a major leap in the polls in Alabama following his Iowa caucus win, jumping from 25 percent support in December to 36 percent in a poll conducted Jan. 8-10. Clinton's support has ebbed from a high of 45 percent in September to the 34 percent recorded this month. On the Republican side, three things stand out: First, Mike Huckabee's support among Alabama GOP voters has grown from a low of 2 percent in September to 32 percent this month. Second, John McCain, who started at 24 percent a year ago in Alabama, dropped to a low of 9 percent as recently as November, then zoomed from 10 percent a month ago to 25 percent this month following his win in New Hampshire. Third, Fred Thompson is showing how not to win over supporters. The actor-politician scored a high of 36 percent support in July, but has steadily declined until he hit a low of 10 percent this month. In other words, it is likely to still be wide open both nationally and in Alabama when voters go to the polls here Feb. 5. So Alabama voters should take their time and choose wisely, because this year, it really counts. The Montgomery
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